Afghanistan is one of the countries experiencing rapid population growth. While this growth may present certain opportunities, it has also brought numerous challenges for the country. This article will explore various aspects of Afghanistan’s population issue, including the reasons for rapid population growth, the challenges that arise from it, and potential solutions to address these problems.
Afghanistan’s Population Status
Afghanistan is one of the largest countries in the world in which a national population census has not been conducted for a considerable period of time. The last comprehensive census took place in 1979, and all subsequent data is based on population estimates, with no precise information available about the current population size. According to the Worldometer website, Afghanistan has an estimated population of 42 million, which would rank it 36th globally in terms of population size. (Chart 1)
Chart 1
However, estimates from the National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA) indicate that the current population of Afghanistan is approximately 35 million, comprising 17.9 million men and 17.1 million women. In 2023, 70% of Afghanistan's population (24.6 million people) resides in rural areas, 25.4% (8.9 million people) live in urban areas, and 4.6% (1.5 million people) are part of the nomadic population.
Rapid Population Growth in Afghanistan
Afghanistan is among the countries with a population growth rate higher than the global average of 0.92% in 2023. With a growth rate of 2.67%, Afghanistan ranks 18th in the world in terms of population growth. (Chart 2)
Chart 2
One of the primary causes of Afghanistan's accelerated population growth is the elevated fertility rate. A multitude of cultural, social, and economic factors contribute to this phenomenon. Among these factors are:
The High Value of Childbearing: In numerous rural and village communities in Afghanistan, the number of children a family has is regarded as an indication of divine favor and economic prosperity.
The Role of Women in Society: In numerous regions of Afghanistan, women are confined to more traditional roles within the family and are afforded limited opportunities for education and employment. This frequently results in early marriages and early childbearing. The fertility rate is 4.5 children per woman, which is markedly elevated, ranking Afghanistan 15th in the world according to World Bank statistics. In comparison, the global average fertility rate is 2.2 children per woman (Chart 3).
Chart 3
Poverty and Insecurity: In situations where poverty and insecurity prevail, people tend to have more children, with the expectation that they will assist them in the future. The majority of people in Afghanistan are farmers, and having more children provides them with additional free labor to work on their farms.
Limited access to healthcare and family planning services: The lack of access to healthcare and sufficient information about family planning methods represents another significant factor contributing to the rapid population growth. Furthermore, a considerable number of families view contraceptive methods as being contrary to their religious beliefs. Conversely, due to the elevated mortality rates among children and the restricted age at which women can bear children, families tend to have larger families, with the expectation that a significant number of children will survive. According to data from the World Bank, Afghanistan has the 24th highest rate of child mortality in the world, with 57.7 deaths per 1,000 children under the age of five (Chart 4).
Chart 4
Consequences of Rapid Population Growth
The current population growth rate is estimated to be approximately 2.14% annually, which is in close alignment with the economic growth rate of 2.7% annually (economic growth rate of 1402/2023). Consequently, the rate of economic growth is merely equivalent to the population growth rate, which results in the perpetuation of poverty and an increase in the prevalence of poverty. This occurs concurrently with the economic growth rate in 1401/2022 being -6.7% and in 1400/2021 being -20.7%, which illustrate the challenging economic circumstances.
Food Security: As estimated by the UNDP, approximately 85% of the Afghan population subsists on less than one dollar per day, falling below the poverty line. Additionally, approximately 18 million individuals lack access to sufficient food on a daily basis. According to global standards, an individual should receive approximately 2,100 kilocalories of food per day.
worsening poverty: With over 85% of the population residing below the poverty line and economic expansion either commensurate with or less than population growth, an increasing number of individuals are falling below the poverty line annually. As families expand, their income and means of sustenance do not correspondingly increase, and children, from infancy until working age, are solely consumers. This process perpetuates the cycle of poverty for many families.
Drinking Water Shortage: The rapid population growth in Afghanistan has resulted in a considerable strain on the country's water resources. The growing demand for drinking water, agricultural use, and industrial processes, coupled with inadequate water resource management, has resulted in a precipitous decline in groundwater levels and the desiccation of numerous springs and qanats. Furthermore, human activities have contributed to the contamination of surface and groundwater, thereby exacerbating the crisis. As reported by UNICEF, approximately 80% of the population relies on water that is unsafe for human consumption. As a consequence, millions of people in Afghanistan are confronted with a dearth of potable water, a situation that endangers their food security and public health.
Air and Environmental Pollution: As a consequence of population growth, the quantity of waste produced has increased, resulting in environmental damage and pollution. This, in turn, gives rise to a number of diseases, which in turn necessitates increased expenditure on healthcare and the expansion of hospitals and clinics. As a result, societal resources are allocated toward addressing the consequences of our own actions, perpetuating a vicious cycle. Furthermore, urbanization and the concomitant increase in the number of vehicles, coupled with the absence of a comprehensive public transportation system, contribute to the worsening of air pollution on an annual basis. Additionally, the primary fuel sources for the majority of the population are firewood and coal, which not only pollute the air but also result in deforestation and environmental degradation.
Lack of Access to Quality Education: It is a fundamental human right for all individuals across the globe to have access to a quality education and the opportunity to attend an accredited educational institution. However, in conjunction with population growth and an increasing birth rate in recent years, there has been a notable increase in the number of children reaching school age. In the forthcoming years, Afghanistan will be confronted with an even more considerable influx of students entering the educational system, given that the largest current age groups are 0-4 and 5-8 years old. The population pyramid for Afghanistan has a wide base, which underscores the necessity for forward-thinking planning (Chart 5). The dearth of educational institutions and the paucity of quality instruction for the incoming generation will precipitate Afghanistan's further decline in global development, perpetuating its status as a nation with low per capita income and underdevelopment.
Education is a critical determinant of a country's development trajectory. However, the rapid population growth in Afghanistan has presented a significant challenge to the realization of this potential. The shortage of schools and teachers has made access to quality education difficult for many children, depriving Afghanistan's youth of the opportunity to learn and develop the necessary skills for life and work. This situation not only affects the individual futures of children but also hinders Afghanistan's progress and development, casting a shadow over the country's future.
The population pyramid for Afghanistan has a wide base
Chart 5
Unemployment and Youth Joblessness: The latest estimates from the World Bank indicate that approximately 400,000 individuals enter the job market annually, with at least half of them remaining unemployed. In addition to the accumulated labor force over the years, the current population growth is estimated to result in at least one million new entrants to the job market annually over the next decade. This is a significant increase that the Afghan economy is not currently equipped to accommodate.
Migration: One of the most significant social challenges associated with population growth is the phenomenon of migration, which has been observed in both internal and external migration patterns in recent years. Internal migration refers to the movement of people from rural to urban areas, which can give rise to several issues. Furthermore, a significant number of Afghans have sought opportunities abroad in recent years, resulting in challenges for the countries that have welcomed them and for the migrants themselves. The latest estimates from the UNHCR suggest that approximately 4.5 million Afghan migrants are currently residing in Iran, with a further 3.1 million in Pakistan.
Strategies to Address Rapid Population Growth
In order to effectively address the challenges posed by rapid population growth, a variety of strategies can be implemented. Among the most significant of these are:
1. Expanding Family Planning Programs: The expansion of family planning programs represents a crucial strategy for addressing the challenges posed by rapid population growth. One of the most effective strategies for reducing fertility rates is to increase access to healthcare services and information on family planning methods. The prevention of child marriages also serves to reduce fertility rates among young women and diminish the risk of maternal and child mortality.
2. Economic Development: The creation of job opportunities, improvement of the economic situation, and increase of the role of women in the economy can contribute to the lowering of fertility rates.
3. Educational Development: The raising of literacy levels and the increasing of women's awareness can help to shift attitudes towards having fewer children.
4. Changing Laws and Policies: The amendment of laws and policies related to marriage and childbearing can help to reduce fertility rates.
Conclusion
The rapid population growth currently occurring in Afghanistan represents a significant challenge to the country's ability to achieve sustainable development. Although there may be some potential positive impacts, this trend has resulted in a number of adverse effects, including poverty, unemployment, water shortages, increased food insecurity, and environmental pollution. Furthermore, the increasing number of school-aged children has resulted in a reduction in the accessibility of quality education, which has in turn impeded the growth of human capital.
To address these challenges, it is imperative that strategies such as expanding family planning programs, improving access to healthcare services, raising education and literacy levels, and enhancing the role of women in the economy be seriously considered. Moreover, reforms in population and economic policies can help alleviate population pressures and create better conditions for sustainable development in the future. In the absence of effective population management, Afghanistan will encounter considerable obstacles in its pursuit of economic and social advancement. To address the challenges posed by population growth, it is recommended that the Afghan government and the international community collaborate on a range of initiatives.
